"ABIO10 PGTW 021800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAR2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.5S 122.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 122.4E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nREVEALS A BROAD DISORGANIZED REGION OF TROFING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN \r\nCOAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME \r\nSUGGEST THE TROF AXIS, OR POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ROTATION, PASSED NORTH \r\nOF THE STATION AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z AND HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER. \r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 \r\nTO 30KTS), VERY WARM NEARBY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), AND \r\nMODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nPREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S \r\n105.5E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A 021041Z WSF-M 37GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A COMPACT INNER-CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, \r\nWITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nMODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) AND MODERATE SOUTH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). \r\nHOWEVER, THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS MAY BE TOO HIGH, BASED ON THE OVERALL \r\nSTRUCTURAL APPEARANCE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW \r\nINTENSIFICATION OF 90S IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW \r\nTHE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND EAST TRACK OF 90S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"