"ABIO10 PGTW 031800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAR2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030621ZMAR2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.8S 107.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) FEATURING FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE \r\nNORTHERN PERIPHERY AND SHEARING TO THE WEST, AND EXPOSED SHALLOW \r\nBANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 031422Z ASCAT \r\n(METOP-B) PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF \r\nA TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY \r\nTHE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nAND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORMATION AND GENERAL \r\nEASTWARD TRACK OF 90S IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.1S 122.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 37 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF ADELE ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE \r\nNORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, COVERED BY CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM DEEP \r\nCONVECTION FLARING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED WITHIN KING SOUND, NORTH OF DERBY. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST TRACK OF 93S IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"