"ABPW10 PGTW 200300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE \r\nOF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P, HOWEVER GFS IS \r\nTHE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BY TAU 48 \r\nAS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.7S 166.6W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S \r\n145.2W, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 192331Z ASCAT METOP-B \r\nDEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND \r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS PORTRAY STEADY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS \r\nWITH GFS AND NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING \r\nCYCLOGENESIS BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO \r\nMEDIUM. DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2). ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. \r\n2.B.(3).//"