"ABPW10 PGTW 200600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM \r\nSOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\nWITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE \r\n(SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK \r\nOF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.0S 145.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.3W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nMOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nMODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STEADY \r\nMODEL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH GFS CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST \r\nAGGRESSIVE, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 93P MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE \r\nAUSTRALIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 \r\nTO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"