"ABPW10 PGTW 201800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM \r\nSOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE \r\nZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-\r\nLEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS \r\nREVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN \r\nQUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE \r\nMODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN \r\n24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 \r\nTO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"