"ABPW10 PGTW 202100\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.2S 171.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 169.1W, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG \r\nTHE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING \r\nSTRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW \r\n202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-\r\nLEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS \r\nREVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN \r\nQUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE \r\nMODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN \r\n24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 \r\nTO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO\r\nHIGH.//"