"ABPW10 PGTW 210600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n18.4S 169.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG THE \r\nSOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nA FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING \r\nSTRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 202100) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.5S 148.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 148.6W, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nUPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nWEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT OVERALL IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S \r\n178.8W, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. \r\nANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN \r\nELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST \r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC \r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nBEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE SYSTEM. \r\nMEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE \r\n(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE GLOBAL \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, WITH GFS \r\nBEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH \r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 \r\nTO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"