"ABPW10 PGTW 211930\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211930Z-220600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 149.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY \r\nAND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-B \r\nSCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE \r\nLLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO \r\nTHE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, \r\nLOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY \r\nEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE \r\nGFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.2S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM \r\nWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION \r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER \r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW BEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE \r\nSYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND \r\nMODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE \r\nNORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.5S 167.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG THE \r\nSOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND \r\nA SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//"