"ABPW10 PGTW 212100\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212100Z-220600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212051ZFEB2025//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 149.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN \r\nTHE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-B \r\nSCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE \r\nLLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO \r\nTHE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, \r\nLOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY \r\nEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE \r\nGFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.5S 167.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nAN ELONGATED ROTATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) AT THE HEAD OF A COMMA-SHAPED VORTEX. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS, \r\nMOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME MORE RECENT \r\nDEVELOPING ACTIVITY NEAR THE LLCC.  A PARTIAL 210930Z ASCAT-C \r\nSCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS 30-40 KNOT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN AN \r\nEXTENSIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC, WITHIN THE ENHANCED \r\nGRADIENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SPCZ. WEAKER WINDS OF 20-30 \r\nKNOTS ARE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION.  PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS A \r\nHYBRID TYPE SYSTEM, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND \r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS ANALYZED CURRENTLY AS MORE TROPICAL IN \r\nNATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29*C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, AND POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN STRONG \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 212100) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.2S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM \r\nWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION \r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW BEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE \r\nSYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND \r\nMODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE \r\nNORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n18 TO 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO \r\n33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"