"ABPW10 PGTW 220600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.W, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN \r\nTHE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 212250Z ASCAT METOP-B \r\nSCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE \r\nLLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO \r\nTHE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, \r\nLOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY \r\nEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE \r\nGFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.6S 178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 178.5W, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM \r\nWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nQUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A \r\n212201Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 20-25KNOT WINDS BEGINNING \r\nTO WRAP MORE IN TO THE LLCC, WITH WIND FIELDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE \r\nNORTH AND SOUTH APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS \r\nTHAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND \r\nGENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF \r\nENSEMBLES ARE BOTH IN SLIGHT AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK IN A \r\nGENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\nIS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF \r\nNIUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, \r\nGENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE \r\nFEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA \r\nOF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) BEGINNING TO UNDERGO A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE PAST 12 \r\nHOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF \r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 211929Z ASCAT-B \r\nSCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 35-40 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC \r\nFROM THE EAST, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SMAP PASS SHOWING A SIMILAR \r\nWIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS \r\nCURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KNOT) VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO \r\nTRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS WELL AS ENTERING AN AREA \r\nOF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND STRONG WESTERLIES \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nTRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY \r\nMONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND \r\nWARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH \r\nWINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST \r\nAUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n     (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//"