{"ObservationDate":"2025-02-20T21:00:00","Latitude":-13.5,"Longitude":-148.4,"Windspeed":23.0,"Pressure":1006.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 93P","PotentialStatus":"MEDIUM","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 202100","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZFEB2025//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","17.2S 171.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 169.1W, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM ","NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ","DEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE ","CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG ","THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ","REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-","LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. ","DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING ","STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ","MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. ","MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE ","POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ","WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW ","202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM ","NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED ","INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND ","CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ","ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-","LEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS ","REVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN ","QUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A ","MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, ","AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ","ENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT ","OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ","MODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN ","24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 ","TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 ","MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.","      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO","HIGH.//"]}