{"ObservationDate":"2025-02-22T02:00:00","Latitude":-14.9,"Longitude":149.0,"Windspeed":33.0,"Pressure":998.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 93P","PotentialStatus":"HIGH","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 220200","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220200Z-220600ZFEB2025//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//","REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZFEB2025//","NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A ","TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","20.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM ","SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL ","CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-","LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ","SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO ","LOW. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","14.8S 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.W, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM ","EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) ","SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL ","CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ","THE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-","B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO ","THE LLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY ","85NM TO THE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ","ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ","ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND ","SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE ","TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ","SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE ","NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD ","AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 ","HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 ","KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE ","POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ","THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR ","FURTHER DETAILS.","      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","13.6S 178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 178.5W, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM ","WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ","QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ","PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ","A 210830Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 20-25KNOT WINDS ","BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE IN TO THE LLCC, WITH WIND FIELDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ","TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE LLCC. ","ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ","ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE ","TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG ","POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ","POTENTIAL RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT ","24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE BOTH IN SLIGHT AGREEMENT ","THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE ","NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO ","23. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ","IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ","SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO ","MEDIUM.","      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF ","NIUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, ","GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE ","CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ","BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ","CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO UNDERGO A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE ","PAST 12 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ","BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 211929Z ASCAT-","B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 35-40 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ","FROM THE EAST, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SMAP PASS SHOWING A SIMILAR ","WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS ","CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ","AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO ","THE SOUTHEAST IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE ","TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS WELL AS ENTERING AN AREA ","OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND STRONG WESTERLIES ","ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO ","TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.  JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO ","CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR ","HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO ","HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST ","AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE ","WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ","ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ","SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO ","LOW. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.","DOWNGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO LOW AND DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL","CYCLONE. UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(3) TO MEDIUM."]}