"ABPW10 PGTW 131800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131800Z-140600ZJAN2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST \r\nOF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A \r\nDISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AS WELL AS \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 91W \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES \r\nARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST. A 131111Z METOP-C ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS \r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS \r\nGENERALLY AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nMODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, \r\nTHEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"