"ABPW10 PGTW 200300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZJAN2026//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N \r\n146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING 92W, \r\nHOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGREEABLE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF \r\nDEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W \r\nWILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. \r\nA 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE \r\nEASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO 25 \r\nKTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE \r\nASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA \r\nINDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND \r\nWEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS SHOW ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 \r\nKTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B \r\n(WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S \r\n151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF \r\nTHE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE AGREEANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS AS THE \r\nSOLE OUTLIER INDICATING DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND PARA. \r\n2.B.(2) .////"