"ABPW10 PGTW 201000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201000Z-210600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200951ZJAN2026//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM \r\nSOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS \r\nIS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF \r\n92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.4S 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY \r\nCLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING \r\nBOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 94P WITH A HIGHLY \r\nELONGATED CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH AND \r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND ILL-DEFINED \r\nOVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ACCELERATES POLEWARD. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nAND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GREATLY OFFSET BY \r\nSIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND MARGINAL (25-26 C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P CONTINUING TO \r\nTRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC \r\nWIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR \r\nHAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO \r\nHIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST  \r\nAUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.\r\nSEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CANCELLED TCFA AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN  \r\nPARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW."