"ABPW10 PGTW 211000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211000Z-220600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZJAN2026//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM \r\nSOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 \r\nTO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS \r\nTHE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF \r\n92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S \r\n148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. \r\nANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED \r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE \r\nNORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 \r\nTO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AGREE ON 90P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY \r\nCONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//"