"ABPW10 PGTW 060600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZJUN2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.9N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM \r\nEAST OF LEGAZPI.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF \r\nAN EXTREMELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING \r\nSIGNS OF BEING A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) AND POCKETS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ALONG THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEUTRAL  \r\nENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER TOP OF THE \r\nLLC, INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 \r\nKNOTS, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 30-31C ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE OF DEVELOPMENT IF THE \r\nLLC CAN CONSOLIDATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH THE GFS \r\nINDICATING 92W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND VERY BROAD, \r\nEXTENDING ATROFEASTWARD, WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN \r\nTHE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL \r\nAFTER TAU 96 WHEN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES BUT REMAINS A \r\nMONSOON DEPRESSION. THE ECENS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF POSSIBLE \r\nDEVELOPMENT, 92W AND AN AREA ORIGINATING NORTH OF YAP, WHICH \r\nEVENTUALLY MERGE AND SHOW MODERATE DEVELOPMENT, BUT WELL AFTER TAU \r\n24. HE GEFS MAINTAINS A SINGLE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH \r\n92W THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL DEVELOPING WELL AFTER TAU 24. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"