"ABPW10 PGTW 240600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUN2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZJUN2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.4N 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKLY FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 240308Z GMI 89 \r\nGHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE \r\nAND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A RECENT 240400Z SHIP OBSERVATION \r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION REVEALS 17KT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY \r\nWINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) \r\nOF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT \r\nLIKELIHOOD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nFORECAST 96W TO ONLY REACH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, WHEREAS ENSEMBLE \r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE MEMBERS REACHING 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"