"ABPW10 PGTW 250600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJUN2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250153ZJUN2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZJUN2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) IS STILL ASSEST TO BE \r\nLOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC WITH CURVED DEEP \r\nBANDING. A RECENT 020800Z METOP-C SCAT PASS SUPPORTS INVEST 96W’S \r\nPOSITION AND THE DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE LLCC. A \r\nRECENT 250300Z SHIP OBSERVATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION \r\nINDICATES 15 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nTHAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO \r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC \r\nAND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER A \r\nLIKELIHOOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST 96W \r\nTO ONLY REACH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, WHEREAS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS \r\nMULTIPLE MEMBERS REACHING 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 250200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"