"ABPW10 PGTW 260600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJUN2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZJUN2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZJUN2025//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9N 142.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED \r\nFLARING CONVECTION. A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION \r\nWITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) \r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 97W, \r\nGFS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON \r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"