"ABPW10 PGTW 011800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011800Z-020600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 344 NM \r\nEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A \r\n010948Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY \r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AS RELATIVELY DRY \r\nAIR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL \r\nTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011400) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011123Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), \r\nMODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE \r\nNEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 \r\nTO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B. (2) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"