"ABPW10 PGTW 030600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. RECENT \r\nOBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES  REPORT \r\nWESTERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH FROM A SHIP IS \r\nREPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 \r\nKNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nINDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS, WITH ECENS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AND GEFS \r\nSHOWING ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK MOTION. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nINDICATES SLOW, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"