"ABPW10 PGTW 031900\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031900Z-040600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZJUL2025.//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031851ZJUL2025.//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIGAN. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING \r\nOVER AND AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nFRAGMENTED BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE LLCC. \r\nPARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 031305Z AND 031356Z OUTLINE THE OUTERMOST \r\nEDGES OF THE CIRCULATION, HOWEVER NOT THE CIRCULATION ITSELF WHICH \r\nWAS IN THE NADIR GAP, AND INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND \r\nBOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 VWS), \r\nGOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, ECMWF AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE TAKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY \r\nNORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. \r\nENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TRACK AS WELL, ENCENS MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND \r\nGEFS MOVES MORE NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT \r\nTIMELINE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO \r\nHIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 031900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO \r\nHIGH.//"