"ABPW10 PGTW 010600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS 010600Z-020600ZJUL2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT 010147Z \r\nASCAT-C PASS SHOWS TURNING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, CONTINUING TO \r\nSHOW A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nHIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n21.4N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) AND A 010256Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 010005Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS TURNING IN THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY WITH 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA \r\nINDICATES FAIRLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 \r\nKTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL \r\nCONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER \r\nTHE 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO \r\n25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."