"ABPW10 PGTW 191000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191000Z-200600ZJUL2024//\r\nREF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190921ZJUL2024//\r\nREF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190922ZJUL2024//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.7N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM \r\nEAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING \r\nDEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE \r\nIMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A \r\nWEAKLY DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-15KTS) VWS, GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nAS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 190930) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED \r\nNEAR 12.5N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 865 \r\nNM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190416Z GMI 89 GHZ COLOR \r\nCOMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE \r\nBANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS \r\nWITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nCHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 142E. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) WITH WARM SST VALUES (30C). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD \r\nOVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION. GFS AND ECMWF \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION PHASE, WITH INCREASING SPREAD AND \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW \r\n190930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."