"ABPW10 PGTW 210600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.5N 135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 774 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING \r\nINTO THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT. A 210043Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20 \r\nKNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH (20-25 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND \r\nMODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT \r\nGRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE \r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP \r\nINTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE, CYCLONIC \r\nCIRCULATION, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY AND A \r\nWEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES \r\nNORTHWESTWARD, IMPACTS MIGHT BE SEEN AS FAR AS 400-600 NM AWAY FROM \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND \r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO \r\nMEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N \r\n154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z \r\nASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY \r\nWARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH \r\nGEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"