"ABIO10 PGTW 270500 COR\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED CORRECTED/270500Z-280500ZMAR2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951ZMAR2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270721ZMAR2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM \r\nNORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-\r\nDEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE, DEEP \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z \r\nASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30 \r\nKNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH \r\nMODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY \r\nWESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) \r\nOF 30-31 C. OVER THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE \r\nSYSTEM NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, \r\nWITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE ECMWF \r\nAND NAVGEM PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM (25-30 KNOTS), THE GFS MODEL \r\nFORECASTS A STRONGER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY \r\nTAU 18. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW \r\n270500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.\r\n4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION IN REFERENCE TO \r\nTHE COAST OF AUSTRALIA IN PARA. 2.B.(1). UPDATED REF B DTG TO REFLECT \r\nCORRECTED TCFA MESSAGE.//"