"ABIO10 PGTW 271800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/271800Z-281800ZMAR2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270751ZMAR2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270721ZMAR2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM \r\nNORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-\r\nDEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE, DEEP \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z ASCAT-C \r\nBULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT \r\nWINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO \r\nHIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY WESTWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 \r\nC. OVER THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM \r\nNORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, \r\nWITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE ECMWF \r\nAND NAVGEM PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM (25-30 KNOTS), THE GFS MODEL \r\nFORECASTS A STRONGER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY \r\nTAU 18. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 270500) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"