"ABPW10 PGTW 220600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220252ZJUL2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.6N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 220113Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A \r\nBROAD CIRCULATION, WITH PATCHY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN \r\nQUADRANT AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220019Z \r\nMHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING \r\nAROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING \r\nINTO A BROAD CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 30-\r\n31C. INVEST 97W HAS FORMED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF \r\nBROAD MONSOONAL FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS. AFTER THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH A \r\nDEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THIS MONSOON \r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE \r\nWINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS HIGH.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR\r\n8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS\r\nPERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU.\r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH\r\nSOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS)\r\nISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA\r\nINDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15\r\nKTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE\r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY\r\nINTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN\r\nECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18\r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."