"ABPW10 PGTW 221800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221800Z-230600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZJUL2025//\r\nNARR//REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nCYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS \r\nDEPICTS THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS \r\nWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS \r\nIT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nAGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON \r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N \r\n121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A \r\nRECENT 221313Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 \r\nKNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT \r\nCONFIDENCE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST A BROAD CIRCULATION, \r\nWHILE GFS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, STRONGER CIRCULATION, WITH A TIGHT \r\nGRADIENT OF 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE GEFS \r\nENSEMBLE INDICATES LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE AMONG ITS MEMBERS, WHILE THE \r\nECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE \r\nSYSTEM’S TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 \r\nTO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//"