"ABPW10 PGTW 222200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222200Z-230600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222121ZJUL2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFINAL WARNING. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.7N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS \r\nA POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING \r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE \r\nSTRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS \r\nIT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nAGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON \r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.2N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM \r\nNORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. \r\nANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 221941Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE \r\nDEPICT IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CALAYAN, \r\nPHILIPPINES INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 7 MB FROM \r\n1004MB TO 997MB WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12 KNOTS. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-31C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME \r\nINTO BETTER ALIGNMENT SHOWING WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND \r\nTHE LLC IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A \r\nSOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 222130) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO \r\nHIGH.//"