{"ObservationDate":"2025-07-22T18:00:00","Latitude":10.7,"Longitude":151.1,"Windspeed":18.0,"Pressure":1008.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 98W","PotentialStatus":"MEDIUM","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 221800","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221800Z-230600ZJUL2025//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUL2025//","REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZJUL2025//","NARR//REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WARNING.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM ","EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ","DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ","CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS ","DEPICTS THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ","ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ","WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) ","SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ","GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS ","IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ","AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON ","DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ","AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR ","1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.","      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N ","121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ","ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW ","LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A ","RECENT 221313Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 ","KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ","ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO ","MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ","OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. ","DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT ","CONFIDENCE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST A BROAD CIRCULATION, ","WHILE GFS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, STRONGER CIRCULATION, WITH A TIGHT ","GRADIENT OF 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE GEFS ","ENSEMBLE INDICATES LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE AMONG ITS MEMBERS, WHILE THE ","ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE ","SYSTEM’S TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 ","TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 ","MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.","      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//"]}