"ABPW10 PGTW 141600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141600Z-150600ZJUL2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141521ZJUL2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.3N 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY AND A 141050Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED, \r\nFLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nHOWEVER, A 141325Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH PERSISTENT EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 \r\nKNOTS), WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 141530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."