"ABPW10 PGTW 102030\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE \r\nCENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2 \r\nGW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES \r\nA FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 \r\nKTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER \r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE \r\nEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH \r\nMARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE \r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A \r\n(WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM \r\nWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION \r\nFLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). \r\nFURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE \r\nOF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A \r\nNORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST \r\nAGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//"