"ABPW10 PGTW 090230\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090230Z-090600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080221ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.7N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG \r\nTHE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 082318Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS WEAK (5-10 \r\nKTS) WINDS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SLIGHTLY \r\nHIGHER (15-20 KNOTS) WINDS DISPLACED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTH. THE \r\nASCAT-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME CLOSED, \r\nHINTING AT CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\n95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, AND \r\nGOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL \r\nQUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B \r\n(WTPN21 PGTW 080230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON \r\nDEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC \r\nCIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100NM AND THE \r\nHIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK \r\nCORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND 082120Z \r\nSSMIS F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT NO WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT RATHER A LARGE AREA OF ROTATION. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (SST), LOW VWS (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD EASTWARD AND \r\nWESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE RYUKU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP \r\nSOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT LIKELY FAIL \r\nTO SHOW TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."