"ABIO10 PGTW 080600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/080600Z-081800ZMAR2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n22.8S 41.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 42.0E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AND A 071605Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A \r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nEQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). \r\nHOWEVER, A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING INTO 90S FROM THE WEST IS \r\nTHE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE \r\nMOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S \r\n93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) AND A 072353Z SSMIS 91GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nCENTRALIZED FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING OUTWARDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN \r\nPERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) VWS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL \r\nCONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE \r\nCONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."