"ABIO10 PGTW 081800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/081800Z-091800ZMAR2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.5S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR), A 081231Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 081548Z \r\nPARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) \r\nHIDDEN UNDERNEATH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A \r\nMARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH \r\nMODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VWS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY \r\nWARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE AN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS \r\nA MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n22.8S 41.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 86 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR), AND 081551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A \r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nEQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). INVEST \r\n90S IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING INTO THE \r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE WEST AND WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nTHAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS \r\nIT APPROACHES THE COAST OF AFRICA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."