"ABIO10 PGTW 091800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/091800Z-101800ZMAR2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S \r\n40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE \r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS \r\nSHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP \r\nCONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM \r\nEUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR \r\n1007 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS \r\nINDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION. AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO \r\nDAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S \r\n95.3E, 90 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1527Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A \r\nDISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AREAS OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 091007Z \r\nSSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF DISORGANIZED \r\nCONVECTION, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17-22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP \r\nNEAR 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH \r\nHIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND \r\nWARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE \r\nAN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL \r\nSTRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS \r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."