"ABIO10 PGTW 101800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/101800Z-111800ZMAR2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851ZMAR2024//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.4S 39.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 38.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST \r\nOF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 101525Z SSMIS 37 \r\nGHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLC, WITH SHALLOW \r\nBANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE \r\nBANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100650Z ASCAT-B IMAGE \r\nINDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT TO THE EAST, WRAPPING INTO \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VWS OFFSET BY \r\nGOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE \r\nCONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE \r\nMOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.3S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING \r\nLOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER \r\nTHE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE \r\nCIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) \r\nINDICATE STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 22-24 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER \r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY \r\nBROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER \r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."