"ABPW10 PGTW 230300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/230300Z-240300ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230221ZJAN2026//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.5S 152.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC). A 222303Z 89H GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED CONVECTION DISPLACED \r\nWELL TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR \r\nTHE AREA INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-\r\n28 C), AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK WIND SPEEDS \r\nWITH GRADUAL DEGRADATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES \r\nARE IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A NORTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK WITH WORSENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 \r\nHOURS.    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S \r\n140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MORINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. \r\nANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY \r\nOBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVENTION \r\nBUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND VERY WELL DEFINED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG \r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA \r\nSHOWS A TIGHTENING VORTEX WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE \r\nAREA ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-\r\n29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AGREE ON CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WITH \r\nECMWF SHOWING THE MOST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 230230) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) WITH FINAL WARNING \r\nINFORMATION, DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW, UPGRADED AREA IN \r\nPARA 2.B.(2).//"