"ABPW10 PGTW 180200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180200Z-180600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.3N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM \r\nEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH \r\nDEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE \r\nTO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. \r\nNUMERICAL MODELS ARE LOOSELY AGREEING ON THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THEM ARE IN SOLID \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N \r\n114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE \r\nTO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, \r\nHOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET DUE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) OF VWS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE SIGNS \r\nOF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 99W CONTINUES ITS TRACK \r\nWESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."