"ABPW10 PGTW 030600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.1N \r\n137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM EAST OF KADENA AB. THE MONSOON GYRE EVENT \r\nWHICH WAS PREDICTED LAST WEEK, HAS STARTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN \r\nPHILIPPINE SEA, AFTER A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVED SOUTH OF \r\nJAPAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND HAS DIVED SOUTHWARD, WHILE BECOMING MORE \r\nTROPICAL IN NATURE. INVEST 91W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED FROM ITS EARLIER \r\nPOSITION IN THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER ROTATION, TO TRACK THE LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF THE MONSOON GYRE \r\nAND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INVEST 91W ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK \r\nTOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, AS IT REMAINS THE ANCHOR POINT OF THE MONSOON \r\nGYRE AND THUS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, \r\nESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, DUE TO GRADIENT PACKING, \r\nBUT OTHERWISE 91W IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO ASSETS \r\nAT THIS TIME. THE OVERALL GYRE CIRCULATION IS QUITE LARGE, SPANNING OUT \r\nTO 600NM OR MORE (BASED ON THE RADIUS OF THE OUTER MOST CLOSED ISOBAR). \r\nOVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, THIS GYRE WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP OUT \r\nASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY \r\nIN A BAND OF ELEVATED, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. ANY OF THESE SMALL \r\nCIRCULATIONS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WRAPPING UP AND AROUND \r\nTHE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GYRE. MULTIPLE INVEST AREAS WILL POP-UP AND \r\nDISAPPEAR DURING THIS EVENT, BUT DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS \r\nIN THIS SCENARIO, JTWC WILL BE IN A MORE REACTIVE MODE, OPENING AND \r\nCLOSING INVESTS AS THE AVAILABLE DATA REVEALS THEIR EXISTENCE. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."