"ABPW10 PGTW 160600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.1N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM \r\nEAST OF LEGAZPI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON \r\nDEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, \r\nGREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE \r\nSOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS \r\nSHEARED FROM THE NORTH. A PARTIAL 160047Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD \r\nAND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\nAND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96W WILL CONTINUE \r\nWEST NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH ECENS BEING \r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. FOR HAZARDS AND \r\nWARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND \r\nSEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"