"ABPW10 PGTW 170600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551ZJUL2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.7N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM \r\nEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A \r\nMONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC \r\nCIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE NEAR GALE-\r\nFORCE WINDS AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 170027Z \r\nASCAT-B IMAGE DISPLAYS A LARGE CORE OF WEAK WINDS, WITH 25-30 KNOT \r\nWINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 170047Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE \r\nIMAGE DISPLAYS FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN \r\nPERIPHERIES WITH NO DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS MAINTAIN A BROAD, DISORGANIZED \r\nSTRUCTURE WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE \r\nSYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT \r\n24-36 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER \r\nCENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO \r\nDESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"