"ABPW10 PGTW 260600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, \r\nWITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. A 251044Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT \r\nSCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT \r\nWINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WHICH IS FUELING THE \r\nAFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, \r\nOFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nTRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5N \r\n126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE \r\nSOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST \r\nWINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM \r\nMIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER \r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND INTENSITY \r\nASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF \r\n29-30 DEGREES C.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 \r\nTO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."