"ABPW10 PGTW 260600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH \r\nFLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A \r\n251044Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH \r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH \r\nOF 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLES, WHICH IS FUELING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP \r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND \r\nGOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF \r\nB (WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5N \r\n126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE \r\nSOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST \r\nWINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM \r\nMIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER \r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, \r\nINCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 \r\nDEGREES C.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."