"ABPW10 PGTW 260600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH \r\nFLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A \r\n251044Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH \r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH \r\nOF 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLES, WHICH IS FUELING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP \r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND \r\nGOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF \r\nA (WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n24.5N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE \r\nSHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nA POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 \r\nKNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM MIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST \r\nBETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND \r\nINTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED \r\nTO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE \r\nSEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF \r\n29-30 DEGREES C.FROM MIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST \r\nBETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND \r\nINTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED \r\nTO TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF \r\n29-30 DEGREES C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 \r\nTO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."