"ABPW10 PGTW 150600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150151ZSEP2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.0N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS \r\nA BELT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA, FROM \r\nTHE PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR \r\nGUAM ARE DRIFTING CYCLONICALLY, CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WEATHER \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTING BROAD CYCLONIC \r\nTURNING. EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION IS CHAOTIC AND STRONGLY SHEARED BY \r\nNORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 150347Z AMSR2 IMAGE FURTHER \r\nREVEALS WEAK AND VERY FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NOTHING WELL DEFINED AT \r\nPRESENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IN THIS VICINITY AN AREA OF \r\nLOW PRESSURE BECOMING CONSOLIDATED IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MARIANAS AS \r\nA WESTERLY WIND BURST CAUSES SPIKING VORTICITY VALUES ALONG THE \r\nCONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW \r\nQUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, \r\nBUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM \r\nTHE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD \r\nUNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE \r\nSUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME PART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD \r\nCYCLONIC TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 \r\nTO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."