"ABPW10 PGTW 151600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151600Z-160600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZSEP2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.0N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nSHOWS A BELT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE \r\nSEA, FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL \r\nCLOUDS NEAR GUAM ARE DRIFTING CYCLONICALLY, CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE \r\nWEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTING BROAD \r\nCYCLONIC TURNING. EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION IS CHAOTIC AND STRONGLY \r\nSHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 150347Z AMSR2 \r\nIMAGE FURTHER REVEALS WEAK AND VERY FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NOTHING \r\nWELL DEFINED AT PRESENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IN THIS \r\nVICINITY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING CONSOLIDATED IMMEDIATELY \r\nWEST OF THE MARIANAS AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST CAUSES SPIKING \r\nVORTICITY VALUES ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW QUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF \r\nCONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT \r\nTHAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH \r\nAND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME \r\nPART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGHING. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N \r\n126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. \r\nANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, \r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE \r\nIMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT \r\nWINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A \r\nSLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL \r\nDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO \r\n20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."