"ABPW10 PGTW 152000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152000Z-160600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED, DEEP, FRAGMENTED, AND FLARING \r\nCONVECTION THAT ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE \r\nAN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST- \r\nTO EASTERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK AWAY \r\nFROM THE MARIANAS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIMETER OF \r\nAN EVOLVING GYRE-LIKE PATTERN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND FROM THE \r\nNORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE SOUTH CHINA, DOTTED BY AT LEAST THREE \r\nVORTICES, INCLUDING 97W. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 \r\nHOURS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS AWAY FROM THE LLC AND NOT NECESSARILY \r\nASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST \r\nQUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-\r\n20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK \r\nTOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."